02 September 2014

Southern Africa: Rain season (Oct 2014 - March 2015) outlook

The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum has isuued the annual outlook for the 2014/2015 rainfall season (October - March) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season over the region has been subdivided into four overlapping three-month periods. The countries covered by the outlook include all SADC member states (Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe).

October - December 2014
    • Northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
      > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
    • North-eastern half of Tanzania.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
    • Northern Mozambique, south-western Tanzania, northern half of Malawi, northernmost Zambia, bulk of DRC and north-western half of Angola.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Central Mozambique, southern half of Malawi, north-eastern half of Zimbabwe, most of Zambia, southernmost DRC, south-eastern half of Angola, bulk of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa, western parts of Lesotho.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Extreme south-western Zambia, Zambezi area of Namibia, south-easternmost Angola, south-western half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, most of northern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Extreme south-western Angola and western coastal areas of Namibia and South Africa.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
    • Western Madagascar.
      > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
    • Eastern Madagascar.
      > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
    • Southern Madagascar
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Mauritius.
      > Increased chances of normal to below -normal rainfall
    • Seychelles.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
    November 2014 - January 2015
    • Bulk of DRC and northern half Angola.
      > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
    • North-eastern half Tanzania
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Northern Mozambique, south-western half of Tanzania, northern Malawi, northern and western Zambia, southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of
      Mozambique
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of both Namibia and South Africa
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Northern half of  Madagascar
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southern half Madagascar.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Mauritius.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Seychelles.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
    December 2014 - February 2015
    • DRC, Zambia, Malawi, bulk of Angola, most of Zimbabwe, greater part of Mozambique and south-western half of Tanzania.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • North-eastern half of Tanzania
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • South-western Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • South-western Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • South-western fringe of Namibia and south-western South Africa.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Western Madagascar.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Eastern Madagascar
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southernmost Madagascar
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Mauritius.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Seychelles.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
    January 2015 - March 2015
    • Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola.
      > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
    • North-eastern half of Tanzania
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Northern Mozambique, south-western half of Tanzania, northern Malawi, northern and western Zambia, southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and western parts of Lesotho
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of Mozambique.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique.
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of both Namibia and South Africa.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
    • Bulk of Madagascar.  
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Southernmost Madagascar
      > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
    • Mauritius.
      > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
    • Seychelles.
      > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall

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